Bold Prediction: 2026 Projections Will Miss the Mark on Pitching Performance—Here’s Why
Spring has arrived, and with it, the thrill of live baseball is back! In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite the excitement, I’ve noticed several instances where the data just doesn’t align with my instincts. And this is the part most people miss—external factors like wind and stadium design might be skewing our early-season observations.
Next week, I’m thrilled to share my 1-30 pitching development rankings, a project heavily informed by a survey of over 50 MLB coaches and executives. Stay tuned for that deep dive!
Let’s talk about some puzzling spring training observations. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, for example. Their four-seam fastballs looked dreadful in their first starts but mysteriously improved in their second outings. Richard Fitts showed significantly more movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25, while Rays prospect Ty Johnson added 3 inches of vertical break to his four-seam fastball—without any changes in release or spin. What’s going on here?
While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind and inconsistent data are major culprits. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch’s trajectory by up to 4 inches. Additionally, stadiums without upper decks have a different wind fingerprint, and spring training parks differ drastically from MLB venues in structure. Even pitcher Robert Stock notes that air density significantly impacts pitch performance, as seen on Stuff+.
Controversial Take: Until we see 2026 data from MLB parks, I’m skeptical of any dramatic changes in pitch movement without corresponding adjustments in release, spin, or arm slot. For now, assume pitchers look like their 2025 selves—but don’t be surprised if the numbers tell a different story later.
Now, let’s shift focus to a team that’s making waves this spring: the Nationals. Last season, they led the league with 55% fastball usage (four-seamers and sinkers combined). This spring, however, they’ve slashed that to just 41.7%, second only to the Marlins. While we’ll need regular-season data for clearer examples, one pitcher stands out: Patrick Corbin. His projections are abysmal (~5.00 ERA in ~20 starts), but his spring adjustments are intriguing.
Corbin has cut his four-seam and sinker usage to 40% after relying on them 54% of the time last season. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, with his cutter close behind at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The goal? Reduce reliance on his four-seamer, which allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties.
Thought-Provoking Question: Are the Nationals onto something with their fastball reduction strategy, or will this backfire once the regular season begins? Let me know your thoughts in the comments—I’m eager to hear if you agree or think I’m missing something!
